A monthly column on
Sedona's real estate market by long time
resident and local real estate agent Carolyn
Huggins.
SEDONA, AZ - Jan 15, 2008 -
Welcome to 2009, a new year, a new administration in
the State of Arizona and in Washington. We also have
hope for a new year in the real estate market right
here in our own Sedona and Verde Valley. Last month
I promised you statistics and they will make your
mouth drop just like your property value did over
the last 3 years.
Read the statistics and you will understand my
message, I not only tell you this I am screaming at
you: IT IS A BUYER’S MARKET.
“A buyers' market should be just that—a buyers'
market. It's not a fence-sitting, waiting,
loitering, delaying, dawdling, postponing,
vacillating, hesitating, wavering, faltering,
pausing, foot-shuffling market. It's a buyers'
market. By its very name it means buyers should be
doing one thing and one thing only—buying. So where
are the buyers, and why aren't they buying?” says
Gary Keller, in his new book, Shift.
We have vacant land that 3
years ago buyers could not get enough of, we have
homes that were so over priced that sellers were
visualizing retiring on a windfall profit, and the
word “flip” was used by everyone in line at the
grocery store. Friends were joining investment
groups and buying properties like there was no
tomorrow. Everyone was afraid to miss the action.
Well as you can see from the stats below, tomorrow
came in 2006. Some will say 2005 but the records
here show the great decline of the Sedona market
started a little later. Why was everyone so
comfortable chasing prices out of site but now so
afraid, yes afraid to step into a market that has
not seen deals and interest rates this great since
post World War II?
Right now the opportunity to
buy is high, but the buyer urgency has hit an
all-time low. The media has done us all a disservice
with negative news and advice that is broad brush
national and not local. All buyers are buying right
now is bad advice and fear. As we listened to CNN
and our national news stations we all bought into
the hype which drove the market to the bottom.
When will we hit the bottom?
That's the question I hear
every day.
The truth is once buyers hear
about the bottom they will have missed the
opportunity. If we continue to rely on the media
there will be no announcement of the bottom until we
have 3 quarters of uninterrupted growth. By then, it
will be way too late. The fear of paying too much
seems to stop most buyers and paralyzes them into
non action. When they should have been afraid of
paying too much they weren't, and now that they
shouldn't be afraid of paying too much they are
fearful and stalled.
Smart buyers, are in the
market, wanting a predictable result and therefore,
ask the question; "Has the market dropped enough now
to make a sensible purchase, one that is right for
my investment portfolio, my family and me?" More
often than not, when they're asking this question,
they're already in the safe zone and the answer is
yes.
Sedona Verde Valley Real Estate Statistics for
2006-08
2008
Residential Sales
Units Sold Median List
Price Median Sales Price
Total Volume
778
$265,000
$247,000
$262,308,835
Vacant Land Sales
Units Sold Median Listing
Price Median Sales Price Total
Volume
143
$175,000
$150,000 $34,035,466
2007
Residential Sales
Units Sold Median List
Price Median Sales Price
Total Volume
1017
$289,762
$275,000 $375,952,306
Vacant Land
Units Sold Median List
Price Median Sales Price
Total Volume
205
$189,900
$165,000 $56,469,243
2006
Residential Sales
Units Sold Median List
Price Median Sales Price
Total Volume
1371
$293,900
$285,000 $546,118,255
Vacant Land
Units Sold Median Listing
Price Median Sales Price Total
Volume
508
$$149,950
$146,900 $139,837,938
If you look at
these numbers you will see a fairly consistent down
turn in the market in units sold and in volume over
the last 3 years. Overall volume fell by about half.
That says a lot about the declining prices and the
ratcheting down of listing prices as the years went
on and days on the market escalated. Sellers were
much more willing to “deal” in 2008 as list price to
sales price percentages have also decreased by about
5%.
The area which truly took the
hit in the last 3 years was the vacant land market.
The decline in units sold and the decline in volume
only reflects the out of control buying that
occurred during 2003-05. Realtors could not find
lots to sell fast enough and when they did they were
out the door in a matter of days. Volume of sales
went from $140 million in 2006 to $34 million in
2008, a drop of $106 million dollars; a 76% drop.
Now the value in vacant land is at an all time high.
The deals are out there. What is so different now
than then. There is still a finite amount of land in
Sedona and everyone knows that there is value in
that. What is stopping buyers from buying land?
There are even loans especially if the lots are in
foreclosure. Banks will loan on their own properties
and with great terms and rates.
Here is the pitch. Interest
rates are at their lowest point, in December 2008 we
saw an upswing in mortgages across the country and
also here in Sedona. We are starting to heat up in
the residential market. If you have been sitting on
the fence now is the time to start looking around
for that property you have been wanting.
Conventional wisdom says to get off the fence, look
for a deal and jump in aggressively. It is time.
If you have any questions about
this article please feel free to e-mail me at
carolynh@esedona.net. Or visit my website at
carolynhuggins.com.
Carolyn Huggins is a thirty
year resident of Sedona and has been a real estate
professional for 20 years. She is a realtor with
Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty.
